Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on January 1, 2024, a move unequivocally rejected by Somalia on grounds of national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Somalia received broad international backing from major world powers, regional actors, and multilateral institutions in its diplomatic standoff with Ethiopia throughout 2024. Türkiye later mediated the Ankara Declaration, where both parties agreed to de-escalate and resume dialogue through negotiations.

Following recent political changes in Somaliland, with Muse Bihi’s defeat and Abdirahman Irro’s election, Hargeisa’s enthusiasm for pursuing the MoU has notably diminished. However, reports suggest that Ethiopia is now quietly engaging Somaliland through meetings facilitated by the United Arab Emirates to revive the agreement’s implementation.

This raises critical questions: What is the future of the MoU? Will Ethiopia attempt to enforce its terms unilaterally? Who are the principal stakeholders, and what are their strategic interests? Can Somaliland leverage the MoU as a bargaining tool in its relations with Somalia? Is the MoU effectively dead, or merely in limbo?

This policy brief, titled “The Red Sea MoU: Actors, Interests, and Strategic Implications,” explores these dynamics and provides analytical insights into the evolving geopolitical calculus surrounding the MoU.